In basketball, the danger of an early scoring lead resulting in a late game collapse is a situation that frustrates players, fans and coaches alike. A team comes out strong, seemingly unable to miss, locking up the opposing team on defense and putting up highlight-reel-worthy-blocks, but then, it all falls apart. Suddenly, a game that appeared to be an easy win has transformed into a nail-biter with coaches calling for their players to strategically foul and making last-minute substitutions.
Attempts have been made to calculate exactly when a lead in an National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) men’s basketball game can be considered “safe.” In his 2011 article for Bleacher Report, Sam Fetchero analyzed years of NCAA game data and found that even with nine minutes remaining in a game, a team would need a 20 point lead to have a near 100% chance of winning. His findings emphasize the volatility of college ball and speak to the importance of players and coaches prioritizing consistent and well-paced play throughout the game.
“To me, playing with a lead is one of the hardest things to do in college basketball,” said Jase Coburn, Head Coach for the Portland State Vikings Men’s Basketball Team.
Such was the case in the Vikings’ face-off with the Utah Tech Trailblazers on Nov. 30 where six games into the 2024-25 basketball season, the Vikings were sitting at an evenly split 3–3 record. Utah Tech came to Portland with a season record of 2-7 and coming off its second win of the season. PSU was the favorite to win with ESPN BET listing them with a spread of -6.5.
Despite a strong start, Portland State Vikings only narrowly beat the Utah Tech Trailblazers with a final score of 71-68. The Vikings entered the second half with a lead of 37–26 which the Utah Tech Trailblazers quickly challenged. Utah Tech had sensed this and swiftly took advantage of it.
In response to PSU’s swift and successful ball movement, Utah Tech adjusted their defense and began guarding the Vikings’ higher up, instead of dropping back into the paint. This change in strategy by Utah Tech allowed them to close the scoring gap. With Utah Tech pressing the Vikings on the perimeter, they struggled to pass the ball or create space on 3 point attempts.
PSU came onto the floor with intensity and energy, supplemented by Coburn and his enthusiastic guidance from the sidelines. After gaining possession at the tip-off, PSU opened the game with a 13–0 run against Utah Tech. Every play Utah Tech tried to set up, the Vikings beat them to it. If they tried to kick the ball out for a three, PSU closed out on them before they could take the shot uncontested. If they tried to shoulder their way into the paint, PSU was there to block the shot. Despite this powerful Viking scoring run out of the gate, the Utah Tech Trailblazers did not let it shake them and made it clear they were not going down without a fight.
The Vikings demonstrated strength and versatility on both ends of the floor, putting up a total of 8 blocks and 11 second-chance points. Beyond their pure athletic abilities, one of the team’s greatest strengths was their in-game communication and the resulting ball movement and playmaking. This team dynamic was no accident.
“When we recruit, we pay a lot of attention to personality, and we have a lot of guys on this team who are very unselfish and that’s a testament to how they grew up and their journeys through their college basketball careers,” said Coburn, on the play style and collaboration the players demonstrated.
As the Vikings tried to adjust their offense, Utah Tech went on their longest run, 11–0, ending in a tie with 1:44 left in the game. PSU called a time-out with the coaching staff looking to make the much-needed adjustments to ensure the game didn’t get away from them. Coburn put Vikings Forward Terri Miller Jr. back in the game after the time out and utilized a stoppage in play to substitute in Hayden Curtiss on the other end of the court.
When speaking on the decision-making process in these crucial moments, Coburn said it all comes down to the confidence he has in his players. After the game, Coburn pulled aside Vikings Forward Terri Miller Jr. outside of the locker room and expressed the confidence he had in Miller Jr. which had allowed Coburn to substitute him back in at the end of the game despite having a rough start.
Miller Jr. had sealed the win for the Vikings, drawing a foul and hitting two clutch free throws.
“He had been sitting on the bench for a while, but I was really confident that he could get us a bucket or get fouled and he’s a very good free throw shooter, so I knew we had the advantage on that end…” Coburn said. “On the other end, I knew Curtiss could go in and he’s been an elite defender here for four years.”
Despite the Utah Tech Trailblazer’s final push, The Portland State Vikings’ consistency, communication and teamwork led them to a victory, bringing their season record to 4–3. The Vikings were led in scoring by Senior Guard Jaylin Henderson—who put up an impressive 22 points well above his 2024-25 season average of 14.5 points per game.
Utah Tech was led in scoring by Senior Guard Beon Riley who tied Henderson in scoring—also putting up 22 points. Senior Center Tre-Vaughn Minott led the Vikings in rebounding, finishing with 11 as the only player on either team to grab rebounds in the double digits. Leading Portland State in rebounding was Senior Guard Qiant Myers with 5 rebounds.
The Vikings victory in this game marked a turning point in their season. Coburn noted after the game that this wasn’t the first time Portland State had gotten out to an early lead this season, lamenting the fact that they had lost several of those games.
“Playing with a lead is not easy, sometimes you can get back on your heels and not be aggressive or be too aggressive,” Coburn said.
Managing early leads was something the team had been working on in practice daily.
Playing with a lead in college ball is hard, but it is not impossible—it’s a skill that requires investment from the players and the coaching staff, and the Vikings’ prioritization of this has paid off. Since their game against Utah Tech, PSU has maintained their winning record, which is currently 13-6.
